A Matthew Berry Fantasy Football Manifesto Redux

Matthew Berry wrote a 17 page, 10,704 word, 57,889 character article (manifesto) on ESPN about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds of winning fantasy football.

That is 629.65 words per page.

5.41 characters per word!

Those are incredible stats for any writer, in any league!

He must be entering a contract year. . .

 

Players entering their final contract year have an incentive to do well.  Last year, I picked Flacco for this very reason.  I won my league.  Enough said.
Actually Flacco was not the real reason I won.  More importantly, he was not the reason I lost.  When I look back on my teams performance last year, I have to admit that yes, Flacco did have a good year, and he did win the super bowl, but having Chicago’s Defense and three of the top twenty receivers helped.

A Lot.

But money makes the world go around and having the chance to put up some great numbers in your final year to get that big free agent contract or record contract extension is a huge motivator for any NFL player.

So who falls into this “show me the money” contract category this year?

Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Plain and simple, he needs to prove he can win games on a consistent basis. Josh has shown flashes of a quality QB but has failed to live up to the potential.  With a good supporting cast he has everything he needs, except perhaps the self confidence.

 

 

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons:
He had a banner year last year and, quite frankly, should have another quality year this year.
He certainly is not lacking in self confidence. Will it be a super bowl championship year for him and his fantasy owners? Only time will tell.

 

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles:
A new coach, essentially a new one year contract to prove himself, and a good team, and probably good offensive scheme to suit his talents, what could go wrong? Oh yeah, rookie NFL coach, new system to get used to, and that pesky little injury bug.  But, if, IF, he stays healthy and they gel as a team, watch out.  This could be fun for fantasy owners.

 

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears:
If there ever was a good mid round QB with good physical ability and talent to succeed in the NFL, it is Jay. He is the type of player who needs not only good support, but the right mix of talent around him to shine.  Otherwise, his charming personality tends to get in the way.  Is this the year?  The only one of the bunch who is a longer shot than Jay is Josh.  And I’m a sucker for long shots so . . . who knows maybe.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars:
Last year he won the ire of fans everywhere by holding out, missing training camp, and getting injured – ultimately missing 10 of 16 games.  That is the bad news.  The good news is:  he is not over the hill yet in football terms, (27), and if he remains healthy throughout training camp, should be well rested and ready perform like he really has something to prove; which of course, he does.

 

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders:
Wow, every time I hear his name I roll my eyes and give a sad little moaning chuckle. He is the Michael Vick of running backs. He has never completed more than 13 games in a season and has missed 13 of 32 games (that’s 40% for those of you who were wondering) the last two seasons. That is a lot of unlucky 13’s popping up. He is about the longest of long shots that you could want. Go ahead – I’m not taking him.

 

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts:
Bradshaw is a versatile back who, despite his injuries, has still managed to perform – and rank – better than many of the 2nd tier backs in the league (fantasy point wise) since 2009. Never less than 25th. He could make a nice low cost (risk), high reward, addition to the Colts and your fantasy roster.

 

 

Other notable running backs up for contract years include:
Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Dexter McCluster, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders
Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans

Now the picks for WR’s and TE’s in contract years is impressive.  Very impressive.  Many, if not all, are legitimate stars.  Take your pick from this outstanding list.

Anquan Boldin, WR, San Fransisco 49ers:
Everybody wanted him to stay with the Ravens, except possibly Colin Kaepernick. With Crabtree down, and a bunch of other good players around him, this could be a chance for him to get two rings in a row.

 

 

 

Darirus Heyward-Bey, WR, Indianapolis Colts:
He did OK in Oakland, now he has a legitimate QB and playoff team.  He could put up some really impressive numbers this year.  Watch out for this one.

 

 

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans:
If you like problem child projects, Kenny is your man.  This IS a make or break year for Kenny.  Most think he will break.  But stranger things have happened.  People change and fantasy fate is a cruel and fickle mistress.

 

Other very attention worthy contract players include:

Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos
James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Mario Manningham, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina Panthers
Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins
Golden Tate, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions

***

Matthew Berry wrote a rambling 17 page, 10,704 word, 57,889 character article on ESPN which referenced the Princess Bride – as if that has anything to do with football – Sheesh!

I think Matthew Berry has suffered too many blows to the head.

His performance has been hindered. He is injury prone and nobody reads him anymore!

Actually, injured-comeback candidates can be a good risk / reward scenario for drafting in fantasy football. Don’t believe me?  Ask Adrian Peterson and all the owners who took a chance on him last year.

So go ahead, if there is a player out there (and I mentioned quite a few in the previous “contract” list above) maybe, just maybe others are writing them off and you can grab them before they become hot again.

 

***

Matthew Berry wrote a 17 page, 10,704 word, 57,889 character article on ESPN about statistical analysis of players and teams and making the playoffs. In fact, he mentions the word playoff 11 times.

Fantasy football is about wining, but it is also about making the playoffs.

This is my bubble theory. The teams and players who are going to be fighting for that last one or two playoff spots. Remember, your playoffs are going to be when other real teams are fighting for a playoff spot or division title.  If you think some team like NE is going to clinch the conference title and coast the last couple weeks, then maybe you don’t want a lot of NE players on your team.  (Shocker!)  Then again, maybe this is the year that NE struggles and ends up fighting for that last coveted playoff spot and you draft Tim Tebow.  (Double Shocker!)  Who knows, he just might save your championship.

So what other teams might be in contention for making the playoffs and, subsequently have players putting up big fantasy numbers as a result?

Detroit Lions? Arizona Cardinals? St. Louis Rams? Kansas City Chiefs? Miami Dolphins? Cleveland Browns? How about anybody from the NFC East? 😉

***

Matthew Berry wrote a 17 page, 10,704 word, 57,889 character article on ESPN.

Only a rookie would make the mistake of writing such a long article. Doesn’t he know internet junkies suffer from Attention Deficit Syndrome. But damn, he has a lot of talent. If only he could narrow his focus and be more consistent he would rate a lot higher on SEO.

For now, I view him as strictly a second rate writer – a back up if the star catches the flu or something.

Last year was a great anomalous year.  Rookie QB’s ruled the headlines. Rookie RB’s had phenomenal debuts.  Do you follow the same rule of thumb this year?  Is the crop as good?  Or, do you you keep your phenoms and hope they don’t have a sophomore slump?

I put rookies and backups to top talent in the same box of chocolates. Yes you never know what you will get but they all have tremendous upside potential for not only doing surprising well, but, in the case of handcuffs, a chance for you to smirk at your fellow league-mates as you suddenly have the next big thing in fantasy football.

So who can we put into our virtual fantasy football box of chocolates?

Lets start with a (believe it or not) low ranking QB (look it up on NFL.COM – 68.7 vs Geno Smith’s 88) EJ Manuel QB Buffalo Bills. He has the size, speed and strength teams are looking for in the new option play action offense of the NFL. He just has to develop those all important qualities of consistency and confidence. With toughness and good leadership qualities already in place, he makes for a good project and surprise sleeper.

Next, we already talked about McFadden’s propensity for injury and warming the bench more than fantasy hearts.  This year some gurus out there are tossing Marcel (contract year) Reece into the fantasy football relevancy hat.  Don’t believe it. Latavius Murray will be the new backfield star in Oakland.

There are some really good rookie WR’s out there like Tavon Austin WR St. Louis Rams, DeAndre Hopkins WR Tennessee Titans (can you say Kenny Britt Replacement? – Sure ya can) and Aaron Dobson WR New England Patriots but I also like folks who are in their second and or third year playing second fiddle to legitimate stars. Folks like Alshon Jeffery WR Chicago Bears, Mike Williams WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Michael Floyd WR Arizona Cardinals.

***

So why do I keep mentioning Matthew Berry over and over again?  Am I a die hard MB fan?
No.
Am I shamelessly promoting something like he does with his book?

Maybe?

My point is this:
His article talks about stats.
Stats are good for standard random leagues and he is correct when he says it is all about managing risk and giving yourself the best “statistical” chance of winning.

But Stats are also boring.  Like quotes, you can take bits and pieces of stats, add a little context, and come up with some really interesting points – and still sound like a pro, because – well – you used stats.

However, stats do not necessarily take into account what if scenarios, nor none standard custom leagues, or – if you have been in the same league with your buddies for years – other owners personalities, loyalties and quirkiness.

That is where the fun comes in.

Yes, Fantasy Football is all about winning and making the playoffs.  But it is also about having some fun and making things up as you go along, taking chances, trash talking, bragging rights among your friends and fellow league-mates.

So with this in mind, here are some of my basic rules and even strategies (a Fumbled Returns Manifesto) for having a successful Fantasy Football season.

Rule #1: Know the rules of your league – stats are good and you should use them to start ranking players but it is the rules of your league, other owners, and random injuries that will shape your strategy.

• Don’t worry about those random acts of fate.  Embrace the quirkiness of your league and the NFL.

Rule #2: Know the environment and the trends of the NFL.

• It’s a Pass / Option happy league out there – so don’t believe all those RB/RB strategies – they are not going to work.
• WR’s, Option Backs, and TE’s are most valuable – so try to get one quality player of each. Three of these (preferably from the top 10 or 20) will be far more valuable than a top QB and insulate you more from a freakish injury.

Rule #3: This is “Fantasy” – have fun with it.

• Mix things up – Take a chance
• Don’t worry about being laughed at.
• The only laugh that counts is the last one.

Rule #4: Be good, Do Well, Have Fun.

• In 5 pages, 2095 words and 11622 characters

You’ve Just Finished Your Fantasy Draft! Now What?

By now most folks have completed their fantasy football drafts and have a brand new team filled with various big name NFL players and dreams of greatness for a yet to be played 2012 season.

Congratulations!  You have completed a very important step in your fantasy football career.

Now what?

Here are some helpful things to remember:

– It is all about probability
– Follow your instincts
– Stay informed
– Once you make a decision, unless new information is published, do not second guess yourself.

– Remember the KISS principle.

OK, that is a lot but really it is quite simple.

Probability:
Your starters and more importantly, your studs (you have at least one right?) Are exactly that because they perform on a weekly basis.  And despite the odds, despite the defenses they go against, if anybody can step up and make a difference,  they can.  If they are healthy and starting in the real world, you should start them in the fantasy one too.

Instincts:
RG3 is going to be the next Cam.  Rookie of the year!  He is going to surprise everyone and be a top 10 QB next year in fantasy land.

To bad everything I just said is already there – IN FANTASY LAND!

This is a possible scenario to RG3 rookie year.  Just not a probable one.  Remember probability?

Face it.  RG3 is more like Michael Vick than Cam.  Cam is built to not only take the hits, but give them out as well.  He is a stud QB.

But, being a hard core Redskin Fan myself, lets pretend RG3 lives up to his potential which should be somewhere around 3200 yards passing 20 TDs and 18 interceptions and oh yeah, about 400 scrambling yards and another couple TD’s to go along with all that.

That actually is not too bad by NFL/Fantasy standards.  Pretty average. And very probable.

Don’t worry.  He could get a lot better in time.

So this makes him a solid 2nd QB for the draft.  GO FOR IT!

Information:
Probability and instincts can be backed up and enhanced with statistics.  This is where you should apply the KISS principle as well.

Let me explain:

Most fantasy football platforms provide ratings on players and each teams defense.  Chances are a 32 ranked run defense will give up more points than a a number 1.  Always use stats to back up probability!  When faced with a dilemma, go with the weaker defender or circumstance.  That will give you the higher probability of success.

Problems start when you begin to use stats and perceived/probable scenarios to back up instinct.

Let me explain:

RG3 is going against the Saints this weekend.  They are a tough defense but not without holes.  The entire Saints organization is on probation, so you think they will not be bounty hunting RG3.  They may chase, but they will not go for the kill shot.  So you think RG3 will have a chance.  Then you realize that the Saints are really a scoring juggernaut and will probably run away with the score.  This means that after, amazingly keeping it close – the skins are only down 13 – 10 at half – (due to an improbably punt return TD by Santana Moss) the Saints open it up in the second half and by the time the 4th quarter roles around the score is 30 – 13!  Then you start thinking that this is great for RG3 because the entire 4th quarter will be garbage time and he will rack up 20+ yard gains and even more scrambling yards because the Saints are not bounty hunting, have won the game, and are playing soft.

This is a great scenario for a Fantasy QB!

And you start RG3 this week over Cam Newton. Or Manning.  Or even possibly Matt Ryan.  Or god forbid Aaron Rodgers or that guy from NE.  Ol’ waz hiz name.

The previously mentioned RG3 scenario is just that.  A scenario.  A possible outcome of the game.  But not necessarily a probable one.  Go with the more probable scenario of a proven starter against an average or less than average defense.

Doubt:
Have confidence in your research, stats, and you team.

Oh and one last rule.

HAVE FUN !

Top 24’s

Ok, so in my last post I mentioned that I am commissioner a league with 12 teams.
So, I’ve been playing around with draft orders and here is what I have come up with for RB, WR and QB.

I list them in that order because at the very least, that is what I usually try and draft 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Sometimes, depending on how the draft is progressing, I may even draft up to 2 RB’s and 2 WR’s before drafting a QB. Then I start going for the best available TE, Def, and K’s.

Now, there is still plenty of time to over analyze this even more, and I will, all the while knowing it makes very little difference but hey, it is Fantasy after all and I want to at least delude myself that my preferences really do give me an edge… 😉

So, without further delay….

My completely biased and crazy top 24’s

RB
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jone-Drew
Michael Turner
Chris Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Clinton Portis
Steve Slaton
Frank Gore
Matt Forte
Ronnie Brown
Knowshon Moreno
Darren McFadden
Chris Wells
Jonathan Stewart
Pierre Thomas
Kevin Smith
Thomas Jones
Steven Jackson
Brian Westbrook
Darren Sproles
Ryan Grant
Derrick Ward
Reggie Bush

WR
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Greg Jennings
Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Lee Evans
Steve Smith
Roddy White
Anquan Boldin
Desean Jackson
Wes Welker
Marques Colston
Terrel Owens
Roy E. Williams
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Vincent Jackson
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Devin Hester
Braylon Edwards
Chad Ochocinco
Antonio Bryant
Hines Ward

QB
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Kurt Warner
Drew Brees
Matt Schaub
Donovan McNabb
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Jay Cutler
Matt Cassel
Eli Manning
David Garrard
Trent Edwards
Jake Delhomme
Tony Romo
Shaun Hill
Jason Campbell
Carson Palmer
Joe Flaco
Kyle Orton
Matt Hasselbeck
Chad Pennington

Fantasy Football Strategy

OK, so I’ve heard talk every year about Fantasy Football Strategies.

So I did a quick look at a couple sites based on a very generic Fantasy Football Strategy search, and this is what I found.

From

I got the following articles on advice:

– Knowing About Bye Weeks Can Only Hurt You- June 12, 2009
– Importance of December Weather- June 10, 2009
– Don’t Worry About 2009 Strength of Schedule- June 8, 2009
– Forget About Brees, Brady and Manning- June 6, 2009
– Crabtree: Not Such a Steal in Fantasy Drafts – June 4, 2009
– Moreno: Only Undervalued Rookie RB – June 2, 2009
– Breakout Wide Receivers – May 29, 2009
– Breakout Running Backs – May 27, 2009
– Draft Talent, Not Consistency – May 24, 2009
– Be Wary of Value Based Drafting (must read) – May 22,

So, here we have articles about Bye Weeks, Weather, QB’s, Rookies, and looking for breakout players… (more on that one later)

I actually have wondered about the bye week thing in the past. Theory being that if you have 4 or 5 players with the same bye week you are screwed. Well, only for that week. Statistically though, they point out that this does not matter.

The weather strategy I actually found interesting only because I had not thought about it much. But statistically it does affect what players and teams will do well in certain types of weather. You know, if it is being played in really rainy, cold, snowy weather; the run will be called more often than the pass.

The do not draft a QB strategy first strategy is one I actually tend to follow. Theory, 2 quality RB’s and or WR, and or combination thereof’s, is more valuable than one QB. Statistically this works. The only time I might even consider the 1 QB path is if I felt all the good RB’s and WR were gone and I had the last pick of the first round. But, generally I do not go with the 1 QB strategy.

Rookies and Breakout players. Well, Mr. Peterson effectively ruined this strategy for many of us. Now most people are eyeing rookie RB’s. I was incredibly fortunate to draft him in the 5th round when he was a rookie. Also, people who are in the last year of their contracts and will become free agents, have all the reason in the world to WOW the world, team owners and their agents. So are rookies and breakout players worth a look? Absolutely, but not in the first rounds.

Then From:

I found more articles of the same, but they actually had a good listing of who all these “breakout” contract year players. Pretty neat.

The only thing about this is that chances are if these breakout players do not have a quality line or people to support them; it makes it infinitely more difficult to actually have a breakout year. These people who fail to excel in their breakout year run the risk of being cut, so I would watch next year to see where they go. If they end up in a better organization or system, then they will probably have their breakout year.

I also found a really good article on playing the waiver wire. Here you look for opportunity. Opportunity for a player to excel because another (starter) has gotten benched, injured, or on bye week.

But perhaps the most important advise, strategy, that I found so far was this:

Know the Rules!

– Are you in an IDP or defensive league?
– Are QB’s overly penalized or rewarded point/yardage/touchdown wise?
– Are RB’s overly penalized or rewarded point/yardage/touchdown wise?
– Are there points for return yards/touchdowns?
– Are there points for interceptions, fumbles, tackles, completions, attempts…

The list goes on and on.

Just like there are people who will overlook rookies and potential breakout players, there are people who will overlook reading the rules.

And, I will throw out one more strategy that I use. It is by no means totally accurate and like the others is sometimes difficult to judge, but it also something to keep in mind as the year progresses and you use the waiver wire.

And this theory/strategy is: Looking for players on teams who will be fighting to make the playoffs.

Here is why. When is the Fantasy league playoffs and championship? Usually during the last 3 – 4 weeks of the season. Teams with locks on the playoffs, or top spots, often will “coast” into the postseason so as not to risk injury to key players. Where as teams that are fighting to make the playoffs or get one up on a rival team will be playing all out to win and score points.

So, there you have it.

From me – Mr. FumbledReturns

– Know the Rules
– Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
– Look for opportunity
– Keep an eye on the end game

And most importantly – Have Fun!