NFL Fantasy Sleepers – Chapter 1

Can you tell who said this?

“Obviously I’m going to strive to continue to get better and better . . . I feel like I’m around a lot of great minds here . . . I have a lot to prove . . . what happened last year with an injury and then not playing at the end of the year . . . no question a bitter taste in my mouth. It’s something I feel only winning will get rid of.”

He is on a team that has a habit of collecting cast offs.

This year they collected a cast of play caller.

A cast off coach.

And they were even cast off of ESPN NFL Football !!!

This really did happen Saturday morning at about 9:00 am EST.

 

Yes I know the ESPN thing is a momentary glitch, but I also happen to think that the Kansas City Chiefs 2-14-0 record last year is also a momentary glitch on the fantasy radar for this QB.

 

Alex Smith.

NFC Fumbles and Returns

Who’s going to surprise?

Who’s going to disappoint?

If you follow Fantasy Football, you probably have seen tons of articles on sleepers and busts. You probably have one or two lists of your own.

Here is mine in no particular order. (To Start)

Matt Ryan – QB – Falcons
If you read my AFC 2009 Fumblers and Returns post, then you know much of the surprise sleepers list was dominated by folks who were injured; maybe even got the “injury prone” label and were written off. Matt fits this mold perfectly. Based on my expert research, mock drafts, I am picking Matt Ryan as my comeback sleeper of the year. It seems that he has really fallen off the radar in the mock drafts I’ve been in and I can’t believe how low he has been drafted, if at all ! Maybe I’m drafting against idiots. Maybe I’m the idiot. But that is what makes Fantasy Football so Great!

Jay Cutler – QB – Da Bears
He can’t possibly do worse than he did last year can he? Talk about not living up to potential and hype! Well, Maybe? It is for this reason that folks either are listing him as the sleeper of the year or one of the biggest fall guys in the NFL. My vote. Fall Guy.

Josh Freeman – QB – TB Bucs
How do you dramatically improve your offensive firepower? The Oakland Raiders took the “get a better QB approach” to flipping the O switch to the ON position. The Bucs took the “here are a bunch of good and fast receivers to throw to” approach. Josh has all the physical skills to be a great QB. Lets hope he develops the mental ones.

Matt Moore – QB – Carolina
OK, so you are this decent steady and good 2nd string QB who comes in at the end of the season because your all-star starter totally flops, and do a really good job. You might think that you are poised for an addition to the Fumbled Returns Surprise Sleepers award. Then your management/coaching team goes out and drafts not 1, but 3 QB’s ! including first rounder Jimmy Clausen. Sheeesh! Don’t worry. I’m sure you will do just fine. In fact I’m putting you on my surprise list early.

Calvin Johnson – WR –Lions
Make no mistake. The Lions will be much better this year and so will Calvin. I just do not know if he quite qualifies as a Sleeper. I’d be tempted to pick the QB first.

Dez Bryant – WR – Cowboys
Hmmm, why do I think T.O. with this one. He probably will be really good, but for the same reasons as T.O. , I could never like him to vote for or even draft him.

Arrelious Benn – WR – Bucs
One of the weapons and reasons TB just might be the turnaround franchise of 2010. Nobody is expecting great results, but the team is starting to put some of the pieces together. It might happen early with a bunch of rookies and unproven talent, but my money is watch out for this team in 3 years.

Mike Williams – WR – Bucs
See Above. And if you want to pick a sleeper from this team, go with the QB. But it might be a stretch. It’s a long shot but remember, you heard it here first!

Mardy Gilyard – WR – Rams
You know, the Rams just might be the “other” turn around team of the year, but I just do not think they have enough good talent in the right areas just yet. But if you have a team in a league that counts return yardage and TD’s, then Mardy just might be a great sleeper for you.

Kerry Meier – WR – Falcons

I saw this picture and thought, WOW ! now there is a sleeper if ever I saw one 😉

I have no idea why they drafted him in so high ( if they were looking for a dependable short yardage receiver then maybe they found him, but isn’t that what TE’s are for?)

But maybe they know something we don’t.

Michael Turner – RB – Falcons
Chris Johnson watch out. WHAT ? That is what some folks think happens to top touch RB’s. The mileage catches up to them. Then you get the “injury prone” label like Michael Turner. Ha! He will contend with Matt for comeback player of the year.

Matt Forte – RB – Bears
This Matt , like Ryan, performs best with a good line in front of him or an extra back to follow. Forte and Cutler, did not get enough improvement up front but If he comes back and excels, it will be because of Harvey Unga and or Eddie Williams. Not that other guy from the Vikings. Nor because of the OL.

LeSean McCoy – RB – Eagles
Yeah, he is definite prime sleeper material and the only trouble is, every know it. But if you have a chance to pick him up in the middle rounds. Do so.

Jahvid Best – RB – Lions
Injuries Injuries Injuries! The fodder of fantasy talk. In all honesty, if he had a year off I’d think he would be a shoe-in for rookie or at worst sleeper of the year. But alas, one does not get a year off in the NFL. I really like what the Lions are doing to rebuild, but I am not sold that he is the BEST just yet. Hey, I’ve been wrong before . . .

Anthony Dixon – RB – 49rs
I know everyone else has said it, and I agree. Watch out for the 9rs. The are bigger, better, faster and stronger than last year. In fact, I would not be surprised if they contend for the top spot in their division. The only thing I am not sold on is their QB. Anthony Dixon is the perfect complement to Frank Gore. And the perfect sleeper for when and if Gore gets hurt. With this tandem, who needs a QB anyway?

Toby Gerhart – RB –Vikings
So, you have a player who tends to fumble a the most inopportune times yet is one of the premier RB’s in the league. What do you do? Get a big power back. Gerhart is the perfect compliment, and decoy, to AP. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him steal a few TD’s from AP’s stats this year.

James Starks – RB – Packers
Yup. The pack is back and they have a great team and this guy got the year off that I wished Best got. No, I do not think he is as good as Best but I bet he turns a few heads. I may be picking him early as a sleeper, but he is worth keeping on the radar this year and in future years as well.

So, which team is my surprise team of the NFC?
There are some really good contenders.
49rs
Lions
Panthers
Falcons

I have two choices.
#2) The Falcons. They have people thinking that they are a middle of the pack team and yet they have quietly improved their team both offensively and defensively. The falcons have drafted good players to improve the quality and depth of their offensive line and key defensive positions. And more than one good choice for sleepers on their squad.
#1) The 49rs will win their division. Surprised? ! ! !
Runner up . . .
#3) The Lions will finish better than the Bears!

And the Bears will be the Pffft team of the NFC!

Congratulations to all who made it on to my list(s)!

AFC Fumbles and Returns Part 2

Who are going to be the biggest disappointments of the 2010 season?

Who will drop the ball, literally and figuratively?

And . . .

Who is going to pick it up, turn it around, and surprise in 2010?

This is the second part of my Fumbles and Returns , the predictions for my AFC Fumblers and Returns (sleepers).

Fumbled Fantasy Players for 2010:
Here is my list for biggest possible disappointments :

C.J. Spiller – Buffalo Bills RB
Face it. The Bills suck are not very good and they do not have a good supporting cast for C.J. Too Bad. Anywhere else, and he would not be on this list.

Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins QB
I know, everybody has him as a breakout sleeper and they have Brandon Marshall. I just do not think he is going to live up to expectations. Without a stud RB, they will not be able to take the pressure off of the passing duo. That is why the dolphins invented perfected the wildcat offense in the first place.

Reggie Wayne – Ind Colts WR
Yes he is an all pro and has been rock solid but there are too many young colts on the rise and Reggie is getting to the Mr. Wayne stage of his career. He is still good but will not get the attention or the stats that he has in past years.

(can you tell I never bet on the favorites to win?)

Most Fumbled AFC Team for 2010?

My prediction for the biggest AFC Fumbled Returns disappointment team still goes to the Denver Broncos.

I love what they did in the draft and I believe they will be a great team in a couple years. But they still have Orton and the QB of the future, Tim Tebow, still needs a couple years to achieve his destiny.

But, with that said, they also have the potential to be the surprise team and have a real sleeper or two in Tebow and the mighty Quinn.

But I’m skeptical . . .

As for the biggest surprises, the sleepers of 2010?

Greatest Return Fantasy Players for 2010:
There are a ton of potential picks here and any one of can make excellent later round picks or waiver wire additions.

Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts RB (possibly)
Michael Bush – Oakland Raiders RB (Either him or McFadden, After holding on to him for the last 2 years I’m dropping him from my roster so he is most certainly guaranteed a break out year)
Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison – Cleveland Browns RB’s (Pick Harrison)
Ben Tate – Houston Texans RB (definitely)
Davone Bess – Miami Dolphins WR (he’s the “other” guy)
Kenny Britt – Tenessee Titans WR (definitely)
Brandon Stokley – Denver Broncos WR (hardly a sleeper in my opinion – too well known)
Mike Wallace – Pittsburgh Steelers WR (ditto)
Jacoby Jones – Houston Texans WR (yup)
Chaz Schilens – Oakland Raiders WR (another good one for the later rounds)

But, as promised, I’m going to pull a couple out of my pocket and list some true sleepers . . .

Kansas City Chiefs have a little rookie by the name of Dexter Mcluster. This little guy, yes he is tiny even for , well anybody’s standard, if he makes the team, he is a true speedster and if you have a league that counts return yards I definitely can see him making a big impact. I also would not be surprised to see him in a bit of a wild-cat play or two or special trick play.

Last year the darling of the NFL was Chris Johnson from the Tennessee Titans. He had a record number of touches and although he is young and strong, nobody can continue to take that kind of punishment. So look for Vince Young and the previously mentioned Kenny Britt to make more of an impact. If you want to choose one, pick the QB. Hopefully CJ will not get hurt, but if he does look to Vince and the passing game to pick up the slack because after CJ, they got nobody to run the ball.

And for my last back pocket sleepers, Rashad Jennings and Deji Karim both running backs with the Jacksonville Jaguars are perhaps the two best backups in the conference to MJD.

So that leaves which team I predict will be the surprise team of the AFC.

If it is not Denver, then I pick . . .

Hmmm let me see, I have three choices . . .

The Oakland Raiders. Nobody is expecting anything from them. Nothing at all.
Maybe their line is a little better from the draft and that gives McFadden a chance to run and Jason a chance to throw?

But, this is still the same Oakland Raiders who picked Heyward-bey over, well just about everyone else… So I am more hopeful than optimistic.

But they did have a good draft and off season acquisition so there could be some surprises from them!

Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has two really good backs and I think they have a really decent Offensive Line, but they really need a ready for prime time QB in order to excel in their division. Perhaps some day, but not today.

Houston Texans. Every time I watched them last year I kept telling myself that all they really needed was a good defense. Well, that seems to be exactly what they went out and tried to do with the draft this year. I am going to go out on a limb and pick them as the biggest surprise. Because they will challenge the Colts for the division title!

So there you have it. The surprise team of the AFC to challenge for the division title and a handful of sleepers to add to your list.

Happy Drafting!

AFC Fumbles and Returns

Who were the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season?

Who dropped the ball, literally and figuratively?

And . . .

Who is going to pick it up, turn it around, and surprise in 2010?

I’m starting with the AFC and saving the best for last, the NFC.
I think the NFC gets the nod for both the biggest surprises (Returns) and disappointments (Fumbles).

Fumbled Fantasy Players for 2009:
Here is my list for biggest disappointments:

Steve Slaton – Houston Texans RB
If anybody dropped the ball, it was him. He was perhaps one of the biggest reasons Houston finished where they did.

Knowshon Moreno – Denver Broncos RB
Like his team, he started out OK but seemed to not have what it takes and/or was running on empty towards the end of the season. It will be interesting to see how the rest of his career pans out.

Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs WR
OK, maybe he dropped the ball too. Of course I put him in the same dropout league as Mr. “I need a drank” Russell.

T.O. – Buffalo Bills WR
I only put T.O. here because there are people who for some reason think he is the greatest thing since sliced bread and, lets face it; he and others were expecting great receptions up in Bills Country.
Honestly, I have never liked him, never drafted him and never did give him any credit even when he had big time games especially against the Skins.

Kerry Collins – Tennessee Titans QB
Mr. Collins (I always address elders as Mr. or Mrs) certainly gave a reasonable comeback kid story in 2008. But that was a fluke. Some people believed it, not me.

Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs QB
This is why I am worried about Donovan McNabb. There was a reason he was given away on the cheap.
In Matt’s case, It was the system he was in that made him so good; not his talent. Donovan always has had the talent. So, in his and the Skins case, there is always hope.

Most Fumbled AFC Team for 2009?

The award for the biggest AFC Fumbled Returns disappointment AFC team goes to the Denver Broncos.

Yes, there are other teams with loosing records.
Yes, there are perhaps some teams which had higher expectations but did not meet those expectations.
But very few people were giving Denver much of a chance for success in 2009.

They very easily could have been the Fumbled Returns biggest surprise with starting out 6 – 0 but losing 8 of their last 10 and the last 4 in a row , well congratulations Denver – you blew it.

As for the biggest surprises?

Greatest Return Fantasy Players for 2009:
Well, you will notice that my list is very injury related. Either somebody came back from an injury (dispelling any myth about being “injury prone”) or they got their chance to shine because someone else got injured.

Matt Schaub – Houston Texans QB
Yes he was injured. So what. Football is a contact sport and folks will get hurt from time to time. That is not always a reason to write somebody off the list.

Cedric Benson – Cincinnati Bengals RB
OK, so he was not injured. He just found his place. Who knew it was going to be a match made in heaven?

Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers RB
See, Matt Schaub.

Ricky Williams – Miami Dolphins RB
Now this is not an endorsement for sitting around on the pot and doing drugs, but Mr. Williams (he is an elder after all) is the exception to the rule and just goes to prove what can happen once one cleans up his or her act.

Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs RB
Either you got it and want it and make it happen or you don’t. Mr. Johnson didn’t.

Of course, picking stuff like this for 2009 is easy. Hindsight is 20/20.

For my next post, I will be putting on my thinking cap, looking into my crystal ball, and maybe pull a few surprises out of my pockets and pick the AFC Fumbled Return losers and surprises for 2010.