By now most folks have completed their fantasy football drafts and have a brand new team filled with various big name NFL players and dreams of greatness for a yet to be played 2012 season.
Congratulations! You have completed a very important step in your fantasy football career.
Now what?
Here are some helpful things to remember:
– It is all about probability
– Follow your instincts
– Stay informed
– Once you make a decision, unless new information is published, do not second guess yourself.
– Remember the KISS principle.
OK, that is a lot but really it is quite simple.
Probability:
Your starters and more importantly, your studs (you have at least one right?) Are exactly that because they perform on a weekly basis. And despite the odds, despite the defenses they go against, if anybody can step up and make a difference, they can. If they are healthy and starting in the real world, you should start them in the fantasy one too.
Instincts:
RG3 is going to be the next Cam. Rookie of the year! He is going to surprise everyone and be a top 10 QB next year in fantasy land.
To bad everything I just said is already there – IN FANTASY LAND!
This is a possible scenario to RG3 rookie year. Just not a probable one. Remember probability?
Face it. RG3 is more like Michael Vick than Cam. Cam is built to not only take the hits, but give them out as well. He is a stud QB.
But, being a hard core Redskin Fan myself, lets pretend RG3 lives up to his potential which should be somewhere around 3200 yards passing 20 TDs and 18 interceptions and oh yeah, about 400 scrambling yards and another couple TD’s to go along with all that.
That actually is not too bad by NFL/Fantasy standards. Pretty average. And very probable.
Don’t worry. He could get a lot better in time.
So this makes him a solid 2nd QB for the draft. GO FOR IT!
Information:
Probability and instincts can be backed up and enhanced with statistics. This is where you should apply the KISS principle as well.
Let me explain:
Most fantasy football platforms provide ratings on players and each teams defense. Chances are a 32 ranked run defense will give up more points than a a number 1. Always use stats to back up probability! When faced with a dilemma, go with the weaker defender or circumstance. That will give you the higher probability of success.
Problems start when you begin to use stats and perceived/probable scenarios to back up instinct.
Let me explain:
RG3 is going against the Saints this weekend. They are a tough defense but not without holes. The entire Saints organization is on probation, so you think they will not be bounty hunting RG3. They may chase, but they will not go for the kill shot. So you think RG3 will have a chance. Then you realize that the Saints are really a scoring juggernaut and will probably run away with the score. This means that after, amazingly keeping it close – the skins are only down 13 – 10 at half – (due to an improbably punt return TD by Santana Moss) the Saints open it up in the second half and by the time the 4th quarter roles around the score is 30 – 13! Then you start thinking that this is great for RG3 because the entire 4th quarter will be garbage time and he will rack up 20+ yard gains and even more scrambling yards because the Saints are not bounty hunting, have won the game, and are playing soft.
This is a great scenario for a Fantasy QB!
And you start RG3 this week over Cam Newton. Or Manning. Or even possibly Matt Ryan. Or god forbid Aaron Rodgers or that guy from NE. Ol’ waz hiz name.
The previously mentioned RG3 scenario is just that. A scenario. A possible outcome of the game. But not necessarily a probable one. Go with the more probable scenario of a proven starter against an average or less than average defense.
Doubt:
Have confidence in your research, stats, and you team.
Oh and one last rule.
HAVE FUN !
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