Tag Archives: georgetown

Nobody Is Perfect

I could win 01According to one some super smart guys out there on the internet, the odds of correctly picking a perfect NCAA bracket are about 9.2 Quintillion to one.

But that is based solely on the fact of treating every game, every team with an equal 50/50 chance of winning.

Of course we all know that is not exactly correct.

 

 

There has never been a 16 seed beating a number 1 seed.

That translates to an impressive 0% win rate for 16th seeded teams.

Six, no wait, Seven 15th seeds have beat a number 2. Thank you Georgetown 😉 That is roughly a 4% win rate.

I could win 02

Eleven and Twelve seeds have done much better. Each has roughly a 33% historical win rate against 6th and 5th ranked teams respectively.

Still, factor all this highly technical mathematical statistics and probability mumbo-jumbo into it and you come up with something like 35 billion to 1.

Not that I would recommend either as a get rich strategy, but you would be better off playing the lottery.