
The Facebook IPO last Friday was the perfect IPO storm, for Facebook. After weeks, OK actually months, of hype and build up, the initial public offering finally happened.
When Facebook (FB) first priced it’s offering between $20 – $30 everybody thought this was a bit high but really good news. It left room for growth and hype. At $25 a share FB would have been valued at about 15 times estimated earnings. Institutional investors were probably drooling over the anticipated profits.
But in the final weeks leading up to the IPO, Facebook increased the IPO price to $38 a share. I’m not sure how this happened, but;
Congratulations to Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook for getting the most money for their shares. This is exactly what greedy owners want.
Shame on the institutional bankers for letting them get away with this.
At this price, no money was left on the table for the banks to get rich off of and all the current inside shareholders of Facebook, got the most bang for their buck.
At this price, the share price is guaranteed to go down.
At this price, the average investor should NOT invest in Facebook.
There is no way Facebook can cover this lofty valuation with earnings in the short term. Mark my words, within 3 – 6 months, if not less, the FB price will be back down to where the initial IPO should have been in the first place – around $25 a share. If the average investor is lucky, this is where FB will hold value and form a support base.
But in order for this to happen, Facebook needs to have at least a couple quarterly reports meeting or beating analyst expectations.
Meanwhile, just keep using Facebook as you always have. Let the Mark Zuckerbergs of the world cash in on their stock options. Say a prayer for the institutional investors who just might lose money on this deal. And stay away from purchasing Facebook shares until the price comes back down to earth.