With upwards of 6 – 10 inches of rain forecasted, all I can say is at least this isn’t snow!
We’d have yet another blizzard on our hands.
Trust me, that picture is a live (as of 5:30 am EST) picture of the Maryland, DC, Virginia radar.
We are under there somewhere….
So, after 3 record snow falls in the same winter and well over 75+ inches of total snow fall, this is the damage report from our back yard.
4 Trees split in half.
1 knocked completely down.
1 lost tree top.
~ 12 broken branches.
This translates into:
A whole lot of debris and firewood. But no damage to the house, shed or deck. 🙂
There has been a lot of talk about all this snow and its affects on the government, people and the economy.
Will the snow closures hurt the economy?
Will not working send some people and families further into the red with the loss of potential income?
If it keeps congress and the president from passing any more legislation putting us further in the hole, is $100 million dollars a day to close the federal government worth it?
All noble questions, but not ones I am looking for answers to.
I got into wondering which companies, stocks might benefit from all this snow.
The other day, InvestorPlace published an article on just this sort of subject. They had a couple stocks that I was going to write about.
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
This cold weather stock isn’t actually a stock; it’s an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It is United States Natural Gas (UNG), an ETF designed to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of natural gas. The logic for UNG is simple. The colder it is outside, the more we need to heat our homes and offices, and most of us do this via natural gas. The increased demand for natural gas should translate into higher natural gas prices. Of course, sometimes this simple logic isn’t quite that simple. Mainly because there are literally tons of natural gas resources right here in the US. But I suspect that if we continue having cold weather, as the experts predict, then the short term supply situation will begin to dwindle as demand becomes stronger. If this dynamic does take shape, it could mean a big surge in natural gas prices. But I am not as convinced that this will be the place to be in the long term.
Netflix (NFLX)
When it’s too cold to go outside, it’s time to stay in and watch movies. These days, most people get their movies from Netflix (NFLX). The DVD rental pioneers were darlings of Wall Street last year, with the stock nearly doubling in 2009. But fears of an inability to meet growth expectations going forward, along with several downgrades of the stock in recent weeks, have knocked NFLX shares well off their highs. But I suspect this pullback in the stock could actually represent a good buying opportunity in the shares, as Netflix will undoubtedly remain the dominator in the DVD rental space for quite some time.
The InvestorPlace article also mentioned a clothing manufacture. North Face.
Made and distributed by VF Corp, it is certainly a worthwhile choice.
My choice for outdoor wear was Wolverine.
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (WWW)
Back when we had our first of three big snow storms, Dec 19, I had a pair of old boots that I had probably purchased at a local payless store. They were really not the greatest pair of boots, especially considering the fact that the entire soles FELL OFF!
Needless to say, my wife and kids were inspired to purchase a new pair of boots. They found a pair of Wolverine boots which are absolutely fantastic. Through all this ice, snow, wind and cold my feet have been 100% warm and dry.
The Wolverine stock has recently pulled back a bit on price and is, in my opinion near a good entry point.
Of course, where can you buy all these good outdoor products?
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)
In November, the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings on rising same-store sales. Dick’s attributed the rise in same-store sales to strong performance of both the North Face and Columbia Sportswear brands. The company also said the increased sales for these brands were likely due to fears of a harsh winter.
Well, we all know that harsh winter came to fruition, and it’s not over yet. As the cold winds continue blowing, look for more shoppers to continue visiting Dick’s Sporting Goods for all of their cold-weather gear.
And, speaking of shoppers…
Each and every time one of these big storms was fore casted and hit the area, stores such as Shoppers Food Warehouse, Giant Food Stores, Wegmans, Safeway, Trader Joes, Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI) were absolutely packed with people buying all the essentials. Milk, Bread, Beer, Wine, Chips, Steaks, and TP.
One could invest in many of these individually or one could diversify with an ETF such as Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP)
And one final note on shopping, if, like many on the east coast, you were truly snowed in, you probably spent a fair amount of time online. And with a major holiday, Valentines Day, quickly approaching I bet many literally spent more online at places such as FTD or ProFlowers.
And don’t forget about some of the other big name online retailers such as Amazon (AMZN), HSN (HSNI), and QVC.
Vancouver Trucking in Snow to 2010 Winter Olympics
First lets look at the numbers and do some math…
Virginia Budget Deficit ~ $133 Million
Maryland Budget Deficit ~ $2 Billion
Pennsylvania Budget Deficit ~ $3 Billion
Virgina = 1,170,892,800,000 sq feet
Maryland = 334,540,800,000 sq feet
Pennsylvania = 1,282,406,400,000 sq feet
Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania currently have between 2 and 3 feet of snow on the ground.
Leaving more than half for the kids to play with…
For a mere penny a foot, we could sell the half our snow to Vancouver and TOTALLY wipe out the budget deficits!
Virginia = $11 Billion profit
Maryland = $3 Billion Profit
Pennsylvania = $12 Billion Profit
Virginia and PA could even loan the proceeds to the federal government to help with their budget deficit too!
With interest of course…
Snow So, I was wondering about all the “costs” of this epic winter and associated snows.
The Federal Government has been shut down for 3 consecutive days due to the weather. This is the first time this has happened in over 15 years!
One estimate puts the “cost” of the shutting down the federal government for a day at roughly $100 million in lost productivity and opportunity. Meaning that so far this winter has cost the tax payers nearly $400 million.
This winter is definitely one for the record books. By the time it is all over, Punxsutawney Phil say 6 more weeks, this will be the snowiest winter in 100 years.
Businesses are also impacted by the snow. Often businesses are either closed or not properly staffed due to employees not able to get to work. This results in lost revenue and added costs of paying employees who do not report to work.
There are also other costs associated with all this snow.
Maryland has (as of last week before the big storm finished and before today’s third big snow) already spent $50 million of the $60 million budgeted to keep the snow clear. In D.C., officials said they were over their $6.2 million snow budget even before the storm started. And Pennsylvania officials said they had already spent half of their $245 million winter operations budget before the storm hit.
This has prompted some to call for an increase in taxes to help insure that we all can get to work in the snow. A kind of “snow insurance” tax.
This is stupid.
If we had this kind of winter all the time, then the budgets to clear the snow would be higher and therefore the taxes would be too.
The budgets are set based on historical trends and norms. They balance risk vs reward all the time. The risk of this happening, in the DC area, every year is negligible.
There are a ton of other factors that influence lost work, productivity and business revenue.
Yes, there are plenty of jobs that require people to be someplace else in order to perform their work. But in today’s society, especially with more and more people and businesses relying on the Internet there is opportunity to look at other resources to enable folks to work.
If anything, this winter event, should be a great example for the need to have better telecommute policies and programs.
Lets look at some of the risk vs reward and potential cost savings for telecommuting.
I pulled the following examples from Innovisions Canada, well, because I was still thinking snow and work and thought where is there usually lots of snow, people, and the need to work. I naturally thought of the great white north, Canada.
Recruitment & Retention Telework is becoming a make-or-break issue in employee career decisions. If you have recruitment or retention problems, consider EKOS Research findings: 33% of Canadians would choose telework over a salary raise: 43% would quit for another job that allows telework.
Morale Telework is a morale builder. Resisting it, especially when your competitors offer it to their staff, damages morale.
Even my company, a major IT corporation, could benefit and improve from the first two alone. Non essential personnel and sites are closed for work but you have to either make up the lost hours or take PTO.
Real estate & office costs Your organization could save 1 office for every 3 teleworkers (that’s about $2,000 per teleworker per year, or $200,000 per 100 teleworkers).
With telework, AT&T saved $3,000 per office for approximately $550 million by eliminating or consolidating office space people no longer need.
About 25% of IBM’s 320,000 workers worldwide telecommute from home offices, saving $700 million in real estate costs.
Productivity Dozens of reputable studies have proven that teleworking 1 to 3 days per week easily increases overall employee productivity by 10 to 20% — a great way to trim overtime and related costs. Doing the math, five to 10 teleworkers equates to one “free” extra worker. This negates the myth that teleworkers will goof off because they are “out of sight.”
American Express telecommuters handled 26% more calls and produced 43% more business than their office-based counterparts.
Compaq Computer Corporation documented productivity increases ranging from 15 to 45%.
Surveys and pilots conducted by IBM Canada (where about 20% of its workforce teleworks) indicate that employees can be as much as 50 per cent more productive when they work in telework environments.
Stress & work/life balance Work / home life conflict is the top Canadian job disatisfier. With telework’s fewer interruptions and improved productivity help employees catch up on their work; and reduce their stress, burnout risk, going-to-work costs and commuting time. Remember that the total yearly commute of average Canadian workers equates to six to eight full workweeks.
So, perhaps the real budget buster is not necessarily the snow storms and closure of the government and business, but rather the lack of adequate alternative resources for enabling people and businesses to work.
Another good resource site for telecommuting is Telecommuting360.
At one point Friday night there were Blizzard Warnings, Reports of Thunder Snow, Flood Warnings and a Tornado Watch in North Carolina.
All from the same storm!
Some places in the area received over 3 feet of snow!
As for us? Well look for yourself…
It all looks pretty, but a lot of that is fallen trees and branches.
Looks like I will have some yard work to do this spring…
Believe it or not, we have two cars and a mini van in the driveway… somewhere…
And now for the “Official” Fumbled Returns Snow Fall Total…
Fumbled Returns 