The Biggest Busts And Bargains Of The NFL

When choosing the biggest busts and bargains of the 2012 NFL and Fantasy Football season, there are many things to consider – Such as:

• Injury
• Luck (good and bad – not as in Andrew)
• Schedule
• Coaching
• Hype
• And last but not least – performance.

But in the end, what it all comes down to is expectations vs. performance.  Of all the things which affect expectations most, perhaps hype is the greatest.

Historically, Rookie QB’s do not make good choices for using high draft picks or even lower bargain picks. Why? Because rarely do they exceed expectations. This year we certainly have some good choices for rookie bargains.

Robert Griffin III, with an average draft ranking of 48.1 (Fifth Round), could be considered a bargain with a 2012 Top Five Performance of 288 standard points.

But what about Andrew Luck? His average draft ranking 126.8 (Thirteenth Round) translated into a top 10 performance of 249 points!

Does that make him a bigger bargain?

Yes. Buy why the huge difference in bargain value? Perhaps it was the “hype” surrounding the Redskins mortgaging their future to move up and grab Robert? Perhaps people expected more results from the Redskins and Robert than they did from Andrew and the Colts?

With both teams suddenly becoming “playoff caliber”, the argument could be made that both Andrew and Robert proved to be added value to their teams success. But even value can be clouded by hype.

Lets compare Andrew Luck vs Matthew Stafford.

Who is the bargain and who is the bust? Is one more valuable than the other? Perhaps to their respective teams, one of them is – but to fantasy teams – they are practically even. Both had virtually identical points 249 vs 247. But with Matthew Stafford’s average draft position of 16.5 (Second Round), does that make him a bust?

Again, maybe, maybe not; but consider this:

For virtually the same draft spot, you could have picked, Adrian Peterson 17.3 draft ranking and 266 points! Or Cam Newton 21.7 draft spot and 299 points!

But more importantly IMHO (for your fantasy teams performance sake) . . .

For virtually the same points (247) you could have picked, Tony Romo (48.7 draft spot (Fifth Round) with 259 points) or Matt Ryan (51.9 draft spot (Sixth Round) with 277 points) or even Russell Wilson 135.9 (Fourteenth Round) draft spot with 234 points).

And so you see the dilemma when picking Busts and Bargains. What one is really talking about is expectations (built upon past performance and or hype) and reality (how they ended up performing this year) and who adds the most value, and who is worth a high round draft pick.

So, who ended up being the biggest busts and biggest bargains?

To find out I did the following:
I took the top 200 overall draft positions in ESPN’s fantasy drafts and compared that list to the current top 200 point leaders (as of 12/24/2012).

From there I found out who was drafted in the top 200 spots but did NOT make it to the top 200 point leaders list – I call these folks the Biggest Busts of 2012.

Ranked alphabetically by position:

PLAYER	TEAM	POS
Bills D/ST	D/ST	D/ST
Cowboys D/ST	D/ST	D/ST
Eagles D/ST	D/ST	D/ST
Lions D/ST	D/ST	D/ST
Nate Kaeding	Mia	K
Billy Cundiff	FA	K
Tim Tebow	NYJ	QB
Beanie Wells	Ari	RB
Ben Tate	Hou	RB
Bernard Scott*	Cin	RB
Brandon Jacobs*	SF	RB
Daniel Thomas*	Mia	RB
David Wilson	NYG	RB
Dexter McCluster	KC	RB
Donald Brown*	Ind	RB
Isaac Redman	Pit	RB
Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	RB
Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB
Kendall Hunter*	SF	RB
Kevin Smith	Det	RB
LeGarrette Blount	TB	RB
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB
Michael Bush*	Chi	RB
Peyton Hillis	KC	RB
Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB
Ronnie Brown	SD	RB
Roy Helu*	Wsh	RB
Ryan Williams*	Ari	RB
Shane Vereen	NE	RB
Toby Gerhart	Min	RB
Brent Celek	Phi	TE
Coby Fleener	Ind	TE
Dustin Keller	NYJ	TE
Ed Dickson	Bal	TE
Fred Davis*	Wsh	TE
Jacob Tamme	Den	TE
Jared Cook*	Ten	TE
Jermichael Finley	GB	TE
Marcedes Lewis	Jac	TE
Greg Jennings	GB	WR
Alshon Jeffery	Chi	WR
Kevin Ogletree	Dal	WR
Laurent Robinson*	Jac	WR
Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	WR
Mario Manningham*	SF	WR
Randy Moss	SF	WR
Robert Meachem	SD	WR
Rueben Randle	NYG	WR
Santonio Holmes*	NYJ	WR
Stephen Hill*	NYJ	WR
Titus Young*	Det	WR

 

Conversely, I took those who made the top 200 point list but did NOT make on the top 200 draft listing – I call these folks the Biggest Bargains of 2012.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	POINTS
Bengals D/ST D/ST	Bengals	D/ST	148
Cardinals D/ST D/ST	Cardinals	D/ST	133
Rams D/ST D/ST	Rams	D/ST	129
Vikings D/ST D/ST	Vikings	D/ST	120
Dolphins D/ST D/ST	Dolphins	D/ST	105
Panthers D/ST D/ST	Panthers	D/ST	99
Browns D/ST D/ST	Browns	D/ST	92
Redskins D/ST D/ST	Redskins	D/ST	82
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST	Buccaneers	D/ST	76
Titans D/ST D/ST	Titans	D/ST	74
Shayne Graham	Hou	K	135
Connor Barth	TB	K	130
Phil Dawson	Cle	K	129
Shaun Suisham	Pit	K	122
Adam Vinatieri	Ind	K	121
Steven Hauschka	Sea	K	112
Ryan Succop	KC	K	107
Rian Lindell	Buf	K	105
Jay Feely	Ari	K	102
Josh Scobee	Jac	K	101
Dan Carpenter*	Mia	K	99
Mike Nugent	Cin	K	96
Kai Forbath	Wsh	K	93
Nick Folk	NYJ	K	89
Nick Novak	SD	K	87
Ryan Tannehill	Mia	QB	166
Christian Ponder	Min	QB	158
Brandon Weeden	Cle	QB	154
Colin Kaepernick	SF	QB	145
Jake Locker	Ten	QB	118
Chad Henne	Jac	QB	91
Blaine Gabbert*	Jac	QB	87
Nick Foles*	Phi	QB	82
Kevin Kolb*	Ari	QB	80
Matt Hasselbeck	Ten	QB	73
Danny Woodhead	NE	RB	94
Joique Bell	Det	RB	92
Vick Ballard	Ind	RB	90
Marcel Reece	Oak	RB	74
Brandon Myers	Oak	TE	92
Scott Chandler*	Buf	TE	86
Cecil Shorts*	Jac	WR	132
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	WR	116
Andre Roberts	Ari	WR	99
Brian Hartline	Mia	WR	99
Josh Gordon	Cle	WR	99
Golden Tate	Sea	WR	97
Danario Alexander	SD	WR	95
Donnie Avery	Ind	WR	90
Brandon Gibson	StL	WR	89
Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	WR	81
Chris Givens	StL	WR	80
Kendall Wright	Ten	WR	73

 

Now some may find these busts and bargains highly suspect and not even worthy of the title. And that is fine. However, I do want to point out a couple things.

Some of the “bargains” such as Brandon Myers may not have had consistent results throughout the season, but he did have some good games and if you happened to have picked him up off of waivers during the bye weeks (like I did) he just might have provided the difference between a win and a loss (which he did – for me).

Timing is everything.

Same difference holds true for the “busts” list. Yes, many are there due to injury, but some like Cundiff and Wilson screwed up. Others, such as Tebow, were victims of hype, bad coaching and well, just about the whole Jets organization.

Speaking of the Jets, both they and the 49ers are tied with the most players on the “busts” list. And because of their totally incompetent coaching staff and organization, I give the title of biggest bust and most over rated team to the New York Jets!

So who gets the title of biggest bargain or most underrated team?

With four players each listed on the “bargain” list both the Colts and the Jaguars could claim that honor.
But I will give the title of most underrated team to the Colts because nobody gave them any chance of making the playoffs at all, even with perhaps one of the better rookie QB’s in the game – Andrew Luck.

So, who were your busts and bargains of 2012?
Did you have anybody on these lists?
What do you think?

3 for 1

I like bargains.

Who doesn’t.

So when I saw a Promotional Package from our cable provider for their HD Triple Play deal for about the same price we are currently paying for cable alone; it got my interest.

You see, HD Triple Play is cable service, Internet service and unlimited local and long distance digital phone service all rolled into one package.

I had actually started looking into all the VOIP service providers out there with the intent on getting rid of our current phone bill, and there are certainly plenty of them out there. Just do a search for “Internet voip providers” and you will get plenty of sites which compare plans and providers.

There was also a company which has a phone device / system which can be purchased in many local retail stores such as Best Buy. They are called OOMA.

So anyway, back to my cable provider and their deal. The more I thought about this, the more I liked the idea of giving them a try.

For the price of my current cable bill, I get the following:

– The exact same channels and options I currently have from cable, HD channels, and programming.
– I greatly increase my bandwidth for Internet access from my current DSL connection to that of Cable.
– I get to use the same phone number I always have with all the same call waiting and caller ID features including voicemail.
– I get to do away with my DSL Internet service bill.
– I get to do away with my Phone bill.
– Yes my new cable bill is a combination of all those, but as I said at the beginning. I am not paying much more to the cable company for all of these service than I already am. The difference is literally 7 whole dollars.
– 3 for the price of one.
– And their voicemail is accessible not only from the phone but from the Internet as well. You can even respond back to a person who left you a message via email.
– I also have one belly button to push should something go wrong.
– And everything is on one bill, which will be paid automatically.

Hopefully the biggest hassle will be to adequately change all my Internet email addresses.

Perhaps I will technically keep the DSL Internet access going for a few weeks. That way I can still access the old email via the web just to make sure.

Oh and an interesting side note. While I was researching all this, I naturally had some questions for my cable company. So, one evening while watching the kids and TV (sort of) I figured I’d go online and try out their support pages. They give you the option of opening a secure chat window with a service representative, so I figured I could watch one more thing and try it out. When I connected the window said I was 18th in the queue. Great, I’m on hold. I probably should have turned the sound up on my laptop to find out if their was also the obligatory elevator waiting Muzak.

Anyway, it was not too bad a wait. About 10 – 15 minutes. The interesting thing was that twice I noticed that my number in line went back up! In other words, one minute I was 7th, then the next I was back up to 8th! I wondered who could be more important than me?

Well, when I finally decided to purchase the package deal, I naturally did it all online. As a last confirmation part, they automatically open up a secure chat window with a representative to confirm everything and answer any questions.

Guess What?

I was now one of the important people…

I entered the queue next in line and I realized that new service payment customers, new money, are more important than current old customers, old money, with nagging questions and, that I just bumped everyone else waiting online back up another number… 😉

Anyway, it seems to be a great deal. I’ll see just how great after next Tuesday when they come to make the actual switch and installations.