Presidential Trends, Stock Charts and NFL Predictions of the Week

Presidential Trends, Stock Charts and NFL Predictions of the Week

– In other words: I have totally neglected my blog.

OK, not quite, however: I have not posted much this week due to work and other life events getting in the way taking precedence.

 

 

So here is a quick catch up:

Presidential Trends:

Obama won the election, and the stock market tanked in fear! – Or depression – or Both.  So what do people do when they are afraid and depressed? 

They drink and buy guns!

When Obama was running and won back in 2008 the gun stocks soared in fear!  Fear that HE was going to take away all our 2^nd amendment rights.  Of course all the idiots were right back then.  And . . .

Well, sure enough, same thing happened again with the 2012 election.

My stock in Smith and Wesson is up over 18% in just 5 days.

Yes, I have absolutely no problem making money off of irrational fear in the stock market.  Especially when in this case, it follows such a predictable pattern.

Stock Charts: (speaking of patterns)

Apple continues to fall!  I made a prediction about how folks were not looking at the big picture when it came to chart pattern investing and Apple stock.   

Throw in the added downward drivers of:

·         Increases in taxes next year – especially on capital gains.

·         Production supply issues.

·         Not exceeding expectations.

·         Uncertain economy.

And you have all the ingredients of a downward trend.

In terms of the head and shoulders pattern, we are now at the second low point level before the right shoulder.

So folks should be looking to get back in and drive the price up soon but, if the overall patter holds . . .

Look for Apple to drop below 500 by late spring or summer!

Do I hear 450 possibly? 

NFL Predictions of the Week:

TacoMan wins again!   The dude cleaned up last week with a 12 – 2 record AND picking the upset of the week (Steelers over Giants)!

So we start off this week with predictions for tonights game.

 

Colts vs Jaguars.

 

TacoMan: Colts 24 – Jaguars 10

SuperCarlos: Jaguars

NinjaSailor: With a last minute text via special assignment – Colts

RedskinDoug: Colts 27 – Jaguars 13

 

So there you have it, another fun filled action packed post encompassing the best of sports, stocks and predictions.

Until next time:

Be Good, Do Well, Have Fun.

Apple, Head And Shoulders Above The Rest?

Last week I read more than one article citing a classic Head And Shoulders reversal pattern for Apple (AAPL).

Now I will be the first to admit that stock pattern investing is far from perfect.

In fact, not many folks have gotten rich off of this strategy.

However, that fact has never stopped many investors, myself included, from dabbling in pattern investing from time to time.

I’m not going to disagree with these pundits regarding the Head-And-Shoulders Apple Pattern, they are correct in their descriptions and assumptions.

All of the articles used the same 6 – 8 week time frame for their analysis.

All of them come up with a support level just a little bit north of $600.

That is fine.

But if one is going to go into stock pattern investing, why not go in big? As in a Bigger Time Period.

Take a look Apple stock price pattern over the past year.

Notice anything?

A much bigger Head-And-Shoulders pattern forming? With a much lower support level? Closer to $500; not $600. That would mean a price correction / reversal of nearly 30% instead of the current 10% correction.

Words of warning?

Perhaps.

Folks are correct when mentioning the $600 – 630 prince target as support.

IF this does not hold, then we could see Apple stock setting up for a much bigger head-And-Shoulders pattern with an ultimate low point closer to $500 – $550.

IF the support does hold, then we could be talking about yet another pattern entirely.

A rising support pattern which involves rising dips in the stock price which would once again bring the $700 point back into play as a resistance level.  Breaking through this resistance level would be key for continuing the rising of the stock.

I am not saying either outcome is a done deal.  But, if you find Apple investors crying about a $500 stock price next spring; remember, you heard it here first.

I Hate To Put Things Bluntly But . . .

“… either we have another very serious credit event with consequences at least as severe as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, or stocks are probably a buy. . .“

It is with this quote that I introduce my January 2012 watch list.  As usual it is quite diverse and extensive.  So much so that it is impossible for me to cover each and every stock listed adequately.

So I am going to highlight a few of them periodically throughout the month.  Another change is that I will keep my watch list located in one place (on my FBR Stock Watch Page) for easy reference.  For now I would like to highlight specific ones which also happen to show up in a fairly interesting graphic (about what happens in 60 seconds on the Internet) I recently saw.

 

The most striking thing to me regarding this, besides the obvious misrepresentations of some of the data (example: Amazon has never broken down their Kindle sales) is the sheer volume of data and money involve.

Some Big Name companies such as Apple, Intel, Microsoft, make both this 60 second chart and my watch list. Apple, Intel and Microsoft all represent companies that make either products and or provide services that are in demand by both consumers and corporations alike. In fact they represent a broad spectrum of markets from communication, to software, to processing power, to gaming and entertainment. All of which are growing in on-line presence. There is name recognition, new market applications, and growing on-line demand for each and every one of these three companies. This, along with a decent price point for their stock, is why they make my current watch list and represent a potential buying opportunity.

Two implied names from this graphic also make it onto my watch list. IBM and Symantec.

Symantec specializes in virus protection and security services for anybody and anything connected to the internet. And we all know that the Internet is full of nothing but righteous, honest, respectable people who would never think of doing anything bad to somebodies computer or steal information. 😉

Riiiight!!!

And IBM is just a monster of applications and services for any IT, On-line, and Marketing company. IBM is the second largest publicly traded technology company in the world. So, what does long time IBM exec and recently appointed CEO Virginia Rometty see as the next big thing for IBM and the Internet?

Analytics.

Yup the boring mind numbing topic of data analysis. Otherwise known as Big Data and Data Mining.

Take another look at that graphic and think of the sheer volume of data and information being generated on a daily basis. Much of it unstructured data that can help companies learn more about all of us, our habits, our likes and dislikes. It is a virtual gold mine just waiting to be dug up and fabricated into valuable product for marketing and on-line research.

And if anybody can do that, it is IBM.

Due this week

So it is now reporting season once again and there are quite a few of my stocks from this months watch list reporting just this week alone.

ClickSoftware CKSW
Upgraded to market outperform on July 14th and reports before market open July 21.
Last quarterly reported 34% growth and no debt.

Capital One COF
Reports July 22.
One of the better indicators of the “wellness” or lack there of is this stock. No so much in its profit but the number of loan defaults and balance rates of card holders.

Microsoft MSFT
Reports July 22
With IBM missing on sales and revenue but upping forecast it will be interesting to see if Micosoft registers a gain in earnings and stock price. With new upgrades to Office and Windows 7 and anticipated corporate renewals this stock is at a very attractive price but may not yet be seeing the anticipated returns on all its new product releases.

Sandisk SNDK
Reports July 22.
Upgraded by UBS to Buy on July 12.
Low debt ratio and solid quarterly earnings. For a while it was speculated that Sandisk would be supplying iPhones but the are not. Regardless, there is an industry shortage of Flash devices due to the popularity of all smart phones, music/video devices, and cameras.

Apple AAPL
Reports July 20th.
So, what do you make of Apple? Reports record sales of multiple new products. Design flaw with their antenna. And somewhat arrogant and sloppy PR handling of the press and public opinion and reviews.
Remember, to be #1, you don’t have to be perfect, you don’t have to be the best, you just have to be better than everyone else.
I just wish Steve and Apple didn’t pull a BP with their press conference and call everyone else the little people for blowing this way out of proportion and not understanding everything that goes into a smart phone.

BTW did anybody catch the ballsy antenna song that apple aired prior to their conference?

Can you hear me now…

So, a while ago I got a HD radio for my car. I got it mostly because the CD in my other radio broke.

Well, one of the features this new radio has is the ability to connect to a Bluetooth device (with an optional adapter of course).

So the other week, one of my co-workers went on spending spree and bought a whole bunch of Apple products like a Mac and iPhone. The mac I could understand because she is going back to college and her current computer is probably older than mine. The iPhone was a surprise to me. Needless to say both are really nice to have and hardly a day goes by that she does not come in all giddy about some new feature, or app, that she discovered with either her mac, or iPhone, or both.

But anyway, one day she comes in and is raving about how she has done the coolest little thing with her iPhone. It connects up with her Prius radio and she can talk and listen to phone calls through her car audio system.

This gets me to thinking that I have been meaning to do the same with my phone and radio. So I hop online and take a look for the optional adapter that is required to do this.

Wow! it is almost as expensive as the new radio was in the first place.
So I hop on over to e-bay and take a look and low and behold someone has a used one for auction. I put it on my watch list and 3 days later jump in with 20sec left and make a bid. I won! 🙂 And it only cost me about 1/2 the price! 🙂 🙂

So, I have installed the adapter, sync’d up my phone, and can now receive and make calls with my car radio!

Cool!